Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Decline of the Sun Continues

UPDATE 26 September 2010:  I changed the final paragraphs correcting "upper atmosphere" to "lower atmosphere" and adding some additional information.

Dr. William Livingston and Dr. Matthew Penn, of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson are continuing to take measurements of both the intensity ratio of sunspots compared to the normal surface of the sun, and of magnetic fields in sun spots. The sunspots have been getting paler and the magnetic fields less intense in an almost linear trend since about 1990.

The sun is behaving in a way we have never seen during the modern era. It is hypothesized that similar behavior caused the dearth of sunspots during the Maunder Minimum of 1645 to 1715 AD. This lull in solar activity coincided with the Little Ice Age, a time of extremely cold temperatures, crop failures, famine, plague, and enormous suffering and death. However, it is still being debated whether or not the reduced solar activity actually caused the cold weather.  (There were volcanic eruptions too, and the temperature decline seems to have started long before the solar decline, maybe.)

Here is the latest Livingston-Penn data through September 6th, 2010, graphed by me.

click for full size image

The measured values form clouds rather than obvious trends, because the data is quite variable.  But the trends are there nonetheless.  The lines are not just eyeballed and drawn in, but are rather mathematically-fit logarithmic curves based on the data, thus showing the true trends.  The large dots are yearly averages, centered in the middle of each year, or in the case of 2010, in the middle of the months collected so far in the year.

The latest data fall right on the curve.  If the trends continue, sunspot intensity ratios will go to 1 (i.e. no contrast) and sunspot magnetic fields will average less than 1500 Gauss sometime between the years 2015 and 2020.  At these levels, there will be virtually no sunspots, regardless of the state of the 11-year cycle.

Decline in solar activity causes a decline in the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field.  This causes an increase in the flux of cosmic rays reaching the earth.  One theory is that increased cosmic rays reaching the lower atmosphere cause increased water vapor nucleation, and thus the formation of more clouds.  More clouds reflecting sun away means a cooler earth.  But comparing the 11-year solar cycle state to global cloud cover, we don't see a real correlation.

As in all climate studies, we just don't have enough data to say anything definitive about whether the future will be warmer or colder than "average".

But I am guessing that we could be in for some cold times, and even food shortages, in the next 10-20 years.

The frozen Thames River in London, 1677

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Obvious Fraud in Global Warming

In the below graph of temperatures at Darwin Australia, the blue is the true measured data, the red is the “corrected” or “homogenized” data, and the black line is the difference, i.e. what was artificially added by the scientists in order to show a warming trend.

Note the blatant stair steps in what was added.

 Analysis and Graph by Willis Eschenbach

The corrections were made by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), a system managed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Arizona State University, and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

The GHCN is the foundation dataset for virtually all other temperature studies in the world today. Jim Hansen’s NASA GISS and Phil Jones’s East Anglia CRU use this GHCN data and massage it even more in what they call an attempt to remove additional “biases”. This extra massaging adds even more artificial warming to the data. Mr. Hansen even subtracts numbers from the raw temperatures in the 1800s and early 1900s in order to make the past look colder.

Then it is used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.

Then it is used to make laws that we are forced to obey.

Without these “corrections”, the worldwide raw data set shows only a very slight warming which is most likely due to growth of cities and infrastructure around measurement stations over the last 50 years.

Recent studies by Anthony Watts and others have shown that less than 10% of the temperature stations in the US are sited correctly. The remaining 90% violate the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's own standards by being too close to warm infrastructure such as air conditioner exhausts, pavement, and buildings -- even BBQ grills have been documented. Over time, temperature stations become surrounded by these kinds of heat sources as cities grow to encompass formerly rural areas, leading to a slight upward trend, especially in  night-time temperatures.

Anthony’s project has surveyed 82% of the stations in the US, so far. I would imagine that temperature stations in the rest of the world are even worse.

The word for all of this is fraud.

Global warming scientists such as James Hansen of NASA GISS, Michael E. Mann of Pennsylvania State (the inventor of the now-discredited "hockey stick" chart used by Al Gore), and Phil Jones of East Anglia University (UK) should be indicted for fraudulent misuse of government funds and sent to prison.

Hansen, Mann, Jones

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Obama as the Destroyer of the Modern World


Most people think Obama is a socialist or a marxist.  They miss the truth.  He is actually a feudalist.  By imposing punishing taxes on anyone who makes more than $250,000 a year (or is it $150,000, or perhaps $75,000?), he is systematically destroying the freedom that, over the last 250 years, has created the modern world where people actually have plentiful food and shelter.   He is destroying the engine of human wealth, and replacing it with handouts from an all-controlling government.  As Victor Davis Hanson says:
Once again, in [Obama's] peasant view of a limited world, wealth is finite: If we have three-car families, people in a basket case like Zimbabwe pay for our excess by having none. To suggest that Zimbabwe’s problems are entirely its own doing, and are not connected to post-colonial trauma or to exploitative wealth creation by the West — and that with radical social, cultural, political and economic changes Zimbabwe could easily be another Switzerland (which lacks Zimbabwe’s natural resources) — is to reject almost all that Obama has learned from his teachers and friends, and as an astute navigator in the world of identity politics.

I wonder how far down the road to feudalism Obama can take us without serious consequences. The world economy, burdened by Obama and other feudalists like him, is already unsustainable.

A singularity approaches.  The golden goose is being tortured and killed before our eyes.  If we implement the feudal, confiscatory tyrannies of Africa in our country, we will be as poor as Africa.

Obama's father-figure and mentor from age 10 to 18:  Communist/Pedophile/Cocaine-Dealer Frank Marshall Davis, whom Obama calls "Frank" in his book "Dreams of My Father"

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Bushehr is the Turning Point

Now that the Russians have fueled Iran's Bushehr reactor, it is off-limits to Israeli or American strikes.  Any attack would spread radioactive materials, contaminate a large area, and potentially kill thousands of civilians.  So it is now a safe zone.

As reported by Debka:
"Iran has begun secretly moving some of its most sensitive nuclear research facilities and materials from North Tehran and the Arak heavy water plant to huge storage areas around the newly-fueled reactor at Bushehr, along with advanced missiles from the southern province of Khuzestan....  Already on Aug. 22, Iran’s National Security Council discussed exhaustively how best to take advantage of this immunity and the large storage depots the Russians had built around the reactor for their heavy equipment to hide their most secret projects, weapons and materials. Their six-hour session produced a detailed plan which was submitted to supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is commander-in-chief of Iran’s armed forces. He gave it the go-ahead on Aug. 26."

It makes sense that Obama allowed the Bushehr reactor to be fueled, if the following is to be believed.  His family, several generations back, may actually have been from Bushehr:

"Dr. Andy Vashol, from the research institute of MIT university says according to his research team Obama is Muslim from south of Iran. As he says, Obama’s family are the same family who were living in Bushehr during the Qajars’ dynasty time. Then they were forced to leave Iran and in few generations they came to U.S.A. His forefather, Mir Hassan khan Obamaee was one of the famous Mirabs in Bushehr (Mirab is a person in charge of water)."
Regardless, Bushehr will now be Iran's primary site for nuclear weapon and missile development.  It is the foot in the door that will allow Iran to become a nuclear and ICBM power, thus leading to the re-founding of the Caliphate, the destruction of the Jewish people, and Iranian rule of the Mideast.


Friday, September 3, 2010

War Talk Heating Up Again

Chatter has been increasing again this week about a possible attack on Iran. But this time around, some different elements are in play:
  • The impetus is coming mostly from the Saudis. They liked the protective buffer our presence in Iraq provided, and are very concerned that Iran will fill the power vacuum as we withdraw.
  • While Iran's potential nuclear capability is still a concern, the Saudis see the whole Iranian military as a threat.
  • The prime actor would likely be the US instead of Israel, since Israel does not have the power to deal with these new concerns -- plus the situation has grown beyond their parochial interests.
  • A potential reaction from Hezbollah may have been mitigated by visits of Saudi King Abdullah to Lebanon and Syria, leaving an Iranian mining of the Strait of Hormuz as the largest concern. 
  • The initial strike would likely be against Iranian military capability in the Strait, followed by attacks on their nuclear infrastructure.  The aerial bombing at Bandar Abbas and other Iranian naval bases and military sites would be of a more strategic nature -- something the US is best at.
An attack would certainly negatively affect economic markets worldwide, and increase the price of oil dramatically.  The new moon is on Wednesday, but attacks could be performed outside of that window.  US markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

In Obama's Hip Pocket

If the elections in November look like they are going to go bad for the Democrats, I figure that Obama will just push the Congress to enact an extension of most of the Bush tax cuts (along with some increases for the wealthy in order to feed the class-envy engine).

The lack of certainty regarding what is going to happen to taxes on January 1st is a big drag on the economy and the stock market. A positive announcement of an extension will dramatically improve both -- and decrease the number of Democrats that will be kicked out.

Once the election is over, it is back to business as usual.  Expect major tax increases in the first half of 2011, along with another economic dump.

Unless the Republicans take over.

Friday UPDATE:  Others see this happening too:
"Congress and the White House may throw a curveball and roll out a tax cut ahead of the midterm elections rather than boost stimulus spending to aid the struggling economy, Harvard University History and Business Professor Niall Ferguson told CNBC Friday."


Obama's Supporters Turning Against Him

Daniel S. Loeb is the founder of Third Point LLC, a New York-based hedge fund managing over $5.5 billion in assets.  He is a registered Democrat and has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for the campaigns of Democrats.  He was a early and strong supporter of Barack Obama.

But his recent letter to shareholders, the first part of which is copied below, makes him sound like he is getting ready to join Glenn Beck.

Loeb's views are representative of the concerns I keep hearing from investors and business leaders:  Obama is imposing governmental power onto almost every aspect of the economy.  While capitalism and freedom are so strong they can bear up under large governmental loading, the new Obamanation socialist bureaucracies that are being built are truly enormous both in size and power.

And worst of all, no one can predict what is coming.  In the past, businesses and investors could count on being free to make decisions and run their companies without being told every detail of what they could and could not do.  Now, every month there are new and expensive requirements, many of which are ill-defined and open-ended.  The new financial regulation law for example, empowers a new governmental agency to make just about any kinds of rules that the leaders see fit.  It sets up a financial regulatory dictatorship, run by unelected appointees, that are answerable only to Obama.

New government taxes, subsidies, regulations, and directives are what swings the fortunes of companies in the Obamaworld, not the basics of products and markets.  Investments are now analyzed based not on the fundamentals of the company or instrument, but on what the government may or may not do.  "Public policy" is the first thing to look at when assessing whether or not to buy a stock.  A bad balance sheet doesn't matter if the company is politically correct and well-connected.  A good balance sheet won't help a company that is in the crosshairs of policy.

In this environment of uncertainty and arbitrary rule, people are becoming more and more afraid to invest. Gold is at a new high.

All of this reminds me of a quote from Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged:
"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion—when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing—when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors—when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you—when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice—you may know that your society is doomed."
Loeb's letter is long, and I thought about excerpting a few key parts. But the whole commentary portion is really good data to have.  I have highlighted the most important statements -- and be sure to read the quotes at the front.  The remaining part of the letter that I did not transcribe is mostly numerical summaries of the performance of the fund.


Third Point LLC
August 27, 2010
Second Quarter 2010 Investor Letter

All, too, will bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression.
  – Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural Address, 1801

A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government.
  – Thomas Jefferson, Writings, 1743-1826

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of the people.
  – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Thomas Cooper, 1802

One of the traditional methods of imposing statism or socialism on a people has been by way of medicine. It’s very easy to disguise a medical program as a humanitarian project. Most people are a little reluctant to oppose anything that suggests medical care for people who possibly can’t afford it.
  – Ronald Reagan,, 1961

You know, there's a lot of talk in this country about the federal deficit. But I think we should talk more about our empathy deficit - the ability to put ourselves in someone else's shoes; to see the world through the eyes of those who are different from us - the child who's hungry, the steelworker who's been laid-off, the family who lost the entire life they built together when the storm came to town. When you think like this - when you choose to broaden your ambit of concern and empathize with the plight of others, whether they are close friends or distant strangers - it becomes harder not to act; harder not to help.
  – Barack Obama, Xavier University Commencement Speech, 2006

It is that fundamental belief, I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams and yet still come together as one American family. E pluribus unum. Out of many, one.
  – Barack Obama, Democratic National Convention Speech, 2004

I think when you spread the wealth around it's good for everybody.
–Barack Obama’s Comments to Joe “the Plumber” Wurzelbacher, 2008

The secret of US success is neither Wall Street nor Silicon Valley, but its long-surviving rule of law and the system behind it... American system is said to be “designed by genius and for the operation of the stupid.”
  – General Liu Yazhou, Phoenix Magazine, August 2010

Review and Outlook

As we entered the second quarter of 2010, many measures of confidence and economic activity were showing consistent improvement, leading us to increase our exposures in select undervalued companies which we thought would benefit from a favorable economic environment. Most pundits initially attributed the subsequent turn in the markets and investor sentiment to the Greek crisis, concern over the Euro, the Oil Spill in the Gulf, and vague rumors concerning faltering Chinese growth. However, it is apparent to us that the turning point in both investor and consumer confidence came on April 16th, with the filing of the government's suit against Goldman Sachs over its mortgage CDO activities. This politically-laced lawsuit was a tipping point for shaky investor confidence against an increasingly worrisome landscape of new laws and proposed regulations that are perceived by many market participants to promote "redistribution" rather than growth, and are contrary to free market ideals.

As every student of American history knows, this country’s core founding principles included non-punitive taxation, Constitutionally-guaranteed protections against persecution of the minority, and an inexorable right of self-determination. Washington has taken actions over the past months like the Goldman suit that seem designed to fracture the populace by pulling capital and power from the hands of some and putting it in the hands of others. For example, a well-intentioned government program gone awry is the new CARD Act that restricts banks from repricing interest rates on borrowers who fail to meet their revolving credit obligations.

The effect of this legal prohibition has been to force the banks to raise the interest rate paid by all borrowers, to compensate for losses they are now being forced to take on delinquent borrowers. The effect is a redistribution of wealth from people who pay their debts on time to those who do not.

Laws and regulations such as these justifiably raise questions about this government's commitment to free-market capitalism and the articulated rule of law. Arguably unconstitutional Bills of Attainder, such as the special "Enterprise Tax" proposed to be levied on hedge fund managers and other managers of private partnerships who wish to sell their management companies (ostensibly in order to extend unemployment benefits beyond the current 99 weeks) send a vivid message that this Administration is operating from a playbook quite different from the one we are used to as American business people; a thought that chills all participants in these free markets.

On the other hand, it is not hard to understand the source of the popular distrust in capitalism today. Many people see the collapse of the sub-prime markets, along with the failure and subsequent rescue of many banks, as failures of capitalism rather than a result of a vile stew of inept management, unaccountable boards of directors, and overmatched regulators not just asleep, but comatose, at the proverbial switch. When we hear the chorus of former executives and regulators exclaim that the crisis was "impossible to see coming”, while at the same time walking away with millions or going on to greater levels of responsibility in government, it is both puzzling and demoralizing. It is easy to see why so many people have concluded that the entire system is rigged.

This crisis of trust in our system is not limited to inept executives in regulated financial institutions who bury their shareholders and then walk away with ill-gotten sacks of loot. Having analyzed hundreds of proxy statements from the outside and having had the "pleasure" of sitting on several corporate boards, giving me a chance to walk the sausage factory floor, I have personally witnessed the incompetence of many boards of directors. One can only conclude that the incentive systems put in place for directors reward luck and station more than they do talent, skill or creation of shareholder value.

Not all boards are bad, of course. Private equity firms have a terrific model of appointing energetic members of their firms and outside experts to oversee the affairs of the companies they govern. They tend to have real "skin in the game", spend days reviewing strategy and other matters, and have their own staffs to analyze numbers produced by the company. Board fees tend to be irrelevant to the members of such firms as they are keenly focused on strategies to deleverage and to create long/medium term shareholder value. Even some public companies have similarly engaged corporate boards.

However, many of the boards we have come across are populated by individuals who rely on the stipends they receive from numerous corporate boards and thus appear motivated primarily to ensure continuing board fees, first-class air travel and accommodations, and a steady diet of free corned beef sandwiches until they reach their mandatory retirement age. We are therefore encouraged by the recently finalized proxy rules, which will ease the nomination and election of directors by shareholders.

All of the above leads us to conclude that America faces not only a crisis of confidence among consumers unwilling to spend and businesspeople unwilling to invest, but also a crisis of leadership. So long as our leaders tell us that we must trust them to regulate and redistribute our way back to prosperity, we will not break out of this economic quagmire. One can hope only that this Administration, composed of brilliant academics that have had experience in creating the very regulation and overseeing the very institutions that have failed, has learned from its mistakes and will set us down the right path. Perhaps our leaders will awaken to the fact that free market capitalism is the best system to allocate resources and create innovation, growth and jobs. Perhaps they will see the folly of generating greater deficits by "investing" in programs that lead to corruption and distortions of the system. Perhaps too, a cloven-hoofed, bristly haired mammal will become airborne and the rosette-like marking of a certain breed of ferocious feline will become altered. In other words, we are not holding our breath and are focused instead on navigating these murky waters for the benefit of our funds.

As capital allocators, it is important to remain dispassionate amid the volatility. We have given a great deal of thought about the impact that public policy has on individual companies, industries, and the economy generally. It was this decision framework that led us to shed our investments in large cap US banks in January due to concerns over increasing regulatory headwinds (in advance of the announcement of the Volcker Rule). We have also sold other regulated industries and eliminated our position in Wellpoint, an HMO that is a statistically cheap stock owned by several hedge funds, but which we saw as being overly exposed to unpredictable government regulation.

On the other hand, our perspective on the government's increased willingness to use its regulatory muscle enhanced our short positions in the for-profit education space. Indeed, this summer certain government actions taken regarding these companies served to accelerate the unfolding of our thesis on these names.
As we discussed in June’s letter and on our Quarterly Investor Call a few weeks ago, we began to bring our gross and net exposures down significantly throughout May, primarily in our equities portfolio. We continued this process through the remainder of the Second Quarter, carving out most positions without definitive hard catalysts on the equity side, also reducing positions in Europe, and avoiding sectors entirely where US government intervention remains likely. Gross and net exposures in our portfolio today are at their lowest levels since March 2009, and have been decreasing all summer in accordance with our political and economic framework.

Additionally, we have initiated a number of "asymmetrical” trades using derivatives, options, and debt securities to hedge against extraordinary global events. We have budgeted the cost of such trades to amount to approximately 1% of fund assets per annum but may increase that to 2% (or more) should opportunities arise.

While we are concerned about this environment and have responded, we retain high conviction in our portfolio. We expect our mortgages and post-reorganization equity positions to produce solid gains over the long-term. We have added to the risk arbitrage portfolio in recent months, and we are encouraged that this August has been the most active month for M&A volume this year. We remain excited about the risk-arbitrage opportunities that will abound should this spike in deals continue. However, we still expect anemic growth in the US for the remainder of the year, and for markets to remain insecure and choppy. We are aware that our opinion is certainly not contrary in the sense that the sidelines is perhaps the most “crowded trade”, and the market could very well experience sharp rallies. So far, at least, we have done a reasonably good job neither getting suckered into chasing rallies nor panicking into inevitable corrections.

Leading up to the November elections, we will be alert for opportunities to redeploy capital into what may turn out to be a rapidly changing landscape.