Friday, July 22, 2011

How to Fake a Heat Wave

I am totally disgusted at the way the media is exaggerating the heat wave that is currently hitting the US. It is politically motivated lying.

And most people seem to be totally deceived by it.

In reality, this heat wave is nothing unusual. People I have mentioned this to recently are surprised to learn that very few areas are having high temperatures over 100 degrees F. Most towns in the heat wave area are running in the low to mid 90's. But you would never learn that from the media.

For example, take a look at this prediction chart for tomorrow 22 July 2011 from The Weather Channel, that was displayed on the Drudge Report today:

It certainly looks horrible, doesn't it?  113 in Baltimore, 115 in Washington DC, 109 in Boston.  Must be the end of the world.  Global Warming!  Time to panic and pass some serious taxes on oil and coal!  We need to call on the Community Organizer to organize the community!

But wait a second.  This is not a temperature map.  It says "Heat Index" in the title.  What is that?  Well, it is a mathematical calculation that uses the temperature and the humidity to define an "apparent" temperature -- a "what it feels like" temperature.

In other words, it is fake.  If you think that the word "fake" is too strong, please note that the heat index in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003 was 172 degrees F, which makes any of the heat indexes on the map above look very small indeed.

Here is the real temperature prediction map for the same date, tomorrow 22 July 2011, from Intellicast:

click image for larger version

Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts will be over 100 degrees F, as will an area in western Kansas and a good chunk of Virginia.  The remaining areas of this "unprecedented heat wave" will be pretty much in the mid-90s.  Hmmm...  Looks like a normal late July pattern to me.  I have personally experienced temperatures over 100 in all the areas predicted to be over 100.

(An aside: Even this map is biased.  How can they justify using a hot orange color for July high temperatures in the 60's and 70's?)

I am really tired of all the lying being used to propagate the religion of Global Warming.  Even the Global Warming "scientists" say that we have only warmed a degree and a half since 1990.  That means that 95 degree heat waves would average 96.5 (but in reality natural variation would mask it).  And that 1.5 degree increase is based on biased urban measurements (taken near parking lots and air conditioner heat exhausts for example) and "adjusted" data.  Uncontaminated raw measurements from rural areas show no warming at all.

But a normal summer heat wave is a great opportunity to garner political power. The process is as follows: Only mention the heat index, not the temperature.  Talk about rolling blackouts (but don't mention that they are caused by the fact we haven't been allowed to build new power plants for quite some time).  Talk about deaths caused by heat (even though deaths caused by cold always outnumber them two to one).  And harness the media to convert a normal summer scorcher into an "unprecedented deadly heat wave" that is caused by "human climate disruption".  Quote some scientists saying that events like this will soon become the "new normal"  unless we give the government the power to force us to stop using energy.  Follow up with statements that Global Warming is "much worse than we had thought".

Sigh.  People are so gullible.



  1. From what I've seen, people aren't running at the mouth about global warming. Every report I've seen has simply stated that it is a heat wave, which it is. It will be gone soon enough.

    You talk about deaths caused by cold outnumbering heat related deaths 2 to 1. I don't know where you get your information, but a quick Google search (if it's on the Internet it must be true!) will tell you that in 2010 there were 138 heat related deaths compared to 34 cold related deaths. And looking at the 10 year average yields similar results.

    NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Also, do you really think you're the only person that 'realized' the map says "Forecast Heat Index"? You think too lowly of the rest of the general public, and much too highly of yourself.

    I do agree with one point you made. Orange for 60s and 70s is a little deceiving.

  2. My cold weather statistics include excess winter deaths from illness where cold weather is a contributing cause, not just those where the people are found frozen.

    PBS had several "experts" talking about how heat waves like this are the "new normal" in a warming world.

    We have more to worry about from global cooling over the next 20 years, than global warming.

  3. Perhaps you would enjoy coming to an area where the dew point is 78 F, temperature is 98 F, and going for a nice jog then, if you don't think the heat index has any validity.

    The heat index has been around for quite a while, and human bodies largely rely upon evaporation for cooling - unless you believe that is just a conspiracy too...

  4. Where I grew up, we used to have "100/100" days. of course it wasn't actually 100 percent humidity, but it got quite close when it was raining at 100 deg F.

    Of course the heat index has some validity, but my point is that the recent heat wave was not unusual. Indeed, it pales next to the heat of the mid-1930's, and even some of the heat waves of the 1960's and 1980's.

    Don't worry. The next 30 years are likely to be so cold that we have crop failures.

  5. By the way, I have actually been exposed to 145 deg F with low humidity. We were doing some Air Force temperature testing, and I had to go into the thermal chamber and move a stimulator into various orientations over a detector. The exposure and data recording took about 30 minutes. Twelve hours later, I had to go in and do it again at -40 deg. This was repeated for 10 days for each test. And I believe we did the whole 10-day test four times, for a total exposure time of 20 hours at each extreme. I remember I would take a can of Coke in, but would have to slosh it around periodically to cool down the aluminum top before I could put it up to my mouth.